Week 6 WR/CB Matchups For Fantasy Football: Malik Nabers Set It & Forget It

Considering a problem or approaching a task from multiple angles is a common theme for my day job. I’m sure it’s the same for you, too. There’s an ultimate goal we’re after, but there are constraints or necessary detours that have to factor into our decisions. Sure, they complicate things. But the added variables (should) force us to prioritize our responsibilities as we step through a process.

The bye weeks are the extra elements to our roster decisions. On top of injuries and oscillations in performance, a one-week absence anywhere on our squad means our stars need to hit their ceiling. Or, the guy we’ve been stashing on the bench has to show out. So, as we go through our options, I’ve got the players with the best (and worst) defensive matchups to help set your lineup for Week 6.

WR/CB Matchups to Target in Fantasy Football for Week 6

Week 5 Recap: Nico Collins (WR33), Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR23). Two whiffs right out the gate. C.J. Stroud had a positive PROE for the second time this season, but the passing game was more spread out, with seven pass catchers earning three or more targets. I’ll monitor this moving forward with Marvin Harrison Jr. joining the fold. Meanwhile, at least St. Brown’s target rate was back over 30%. Jared Goff did throw to him in the end zone twice, but they couldn’t connect. With Goff averaging the sixth-most dropbacks per game, don’t be surprised to see St. Brown’s matchup as one to target in Week 7.

Malik Nabers vs Saints

We’re three weeks into “The Jameis Winston Experience,” and the results are as expected. If 54 attempts in the rain isn’t enough of an indication, the Giants PROE has been on an upward trend since Winston’s first full start (-19.4%, -8.3%, and +4.6%). The “over expectation” part of PROE is key, as it at least hints at the intent of the playcalling with the game environment in context. More importantly, when Winston has thrown, there’s a good chance we know who’s going to be on the other end.

Pick a scenario, and you’ll find Malik Nabers with over 30% of the targets. If Winston was under duress, that’s at least three balls to Nabers. Obvious passing situations? Another two. The kicker was Winston looking to No. 1 10(!) times when they got into scoring position. The passing game is flowing through Nabers (and Isaiah Likely), and he has another ceiling-enabling environment ahead of him this weekend.

Week 1: Amon-Ra St. Brown, 35.9% (Target Share), 28.7 (PPR points)
Week 2: Rashod Bateman, 31.0%, 21.8
Week 3: Brock Bowers, 45.2%, 27.6
Week 4: Drake London, 30.0%, 14.6
Week 5: Justin Jefferson, 24.1%, 18.8

I included Brock Bowers on this list for two reasons. First, to emphasize how the top pass catcher from each team to face the Saints has performed. Second, to highlight the various archetypes of receivers and their overlap with Nabers’ skill set. He can win downfield like Bateman or win as a premier route runner like the other four. And with the Saints’ offense likely to fight back, Nabers should be at or near the top of the WR ranks after Week 6.

Davante Adams vs Cardinals

A way to frame Puka Nacua’s return is that he’s turned Davante Adams into a mid-range WR2. We’ve gotten two games with the duo on the field together, and Adams’ red-zone prowess is the only thing keeping his fantasy value alive.

Adams target share has been on a three-week decline, and he ran fewer routes in their primetime battle against the Bills. But there’s another way to look at LA’s offense in Week 5.

Blitz Rate (only early downs): 28.6%, 2nd-highest rate of the season
Pressure Rate: 31.0%, 3rd-highest
Average Time to Throw: 2.57, 2nd-fastest time
aDOT: 6.1, shortest

The Rams' answer to Buffalo’s pass rush was to get the ball out often and early. While Matthew Stafford threw the ball 41 times on first or second down, he was throwing in the short area of the field on 58.5% of them. That’s where Nacua, the TEs and RBs shine. Not Adams. However, the Cardinals don’t present the same challenges up front.

Arizona ranks 28th in pressure rate with the fourth-most receiving yards allowed on throws of 10 air yards or more. That’s right in Adams’ wheelhouse. Nacua will (and should!) lead the Rams in targets. But we should expect to see more toward Adams, including red-zone opportunities, in Week 6.

Sneaky Matchups for Week 6

Recap: Rome Odunze (WR50), Khalil Shakir (WR31), Denzel Boston (WR22). Chicago’s entire offense crumbled under Tyson Bagent, which I didn’t see coming. I’ll say the same about the Bills shifting their priority from WRs, as they accounted for just 38.9% of Josh Allen’s targets. Boston was the only receiver with a workload and environment that held from the previous week. Let’s prioritize the same trait (i.e., consistent usage) for Week 6.

Matthew Golden vs Cowboys

Matthew Golden sits on the fringe of the Top 12 per our rankings. And, trust me, I understand the evaluation. He’s the WR2 for his team. Comparing his situation to Parker Washington, Michael Wilson, or Jalen Coker, we start splitting hairs. But if you looked at Golden’s share of the attempts, you’d want to have him higher.

Every week, it’s either Golden or Christian Watson creating big plays downfield. Actually, last week it was both. But the sophomore’s constant involvement should have him as a mainstay in our lineups. Since Week 1, he’s earned no fewer than 5 targets in a single game and had an air yard share of 32% or greater all season. And, yes, he’s going up against Dallas’ secondary, but there’s a specific aspect of the coverage that Golden can attack.

Houston’s OC Nick Caley used Collins on in-breaking routes on 62.5% of his targets, totaling 105 yards and a TD. Caley and HC Matt LaFleur worked together in LA and share similar playcalling styles. While Watson will continue to challenge defenses deep, Golden’s usage on routes across the middle of the field (32% on the season) will be another way for the Packers to create big plays against Dallas.

Wan'Dale Robinson vs Colts

Relying on Cam Ward to do anything feels like a trap. But Wan'Dale Robinson does check our two boxes for an under-the-radar play for Week 6: opportunity and matchup.

Robinson has only one week with fewer than 5 targets. Still, he’s been the Titans’ slot man with 77.6% of his snaps played on the inside. And at a 6.7-yard aDOT, only Tyjae Spears has a higher catchable target rate through five games. Now, let’s look at the coverage he’ll be facing.

Yards per Game Allowed (to Slot WRs): 111.6, 31st
Defensive EPA per Play: -0.52, 27th
Passing Success Rate Allowed: 53.1%, 21st

Indianapolis’ slot corner, Justin Walley, has given up the second-most yards and tied for giving up the most TDs to interior receivers. Two of Germie Bernard’s six catches came against Walley in coverage. The game total (44.5) does indicate fewer scores in this game, but Robinson’s overall outlook has WR2 upside for Week 6.

Germie Bernard vs Buccaneers

I’ll call out Germie Bernard just to be thorough. It took injuries to Michael Pittman Jr. and Roman Wilson for the rookie to see the field. However, his 94% route rate aligned with DK Metcalf’s, and he out-targeted the veteran receiver 8 to 4. The Cowboys’ WRs totaled 133 yards on 12 targets when Dak Prescott kept his passes under 10 air yards. That's an area that suits Aaron Rodgers (7.6 air per attempt on the season) and Bernard (5.9 aDOT), making a repeat performance in Week 6 possible.

WR/CB Matchup to Avoid in Fantasy Football for Week 6

Final Note: Taking the time to foot-stomp the idea that “avoid” doesn’t mean bench. Based on their environment, we should look to other players on the roster to help you win the week.

Michael Wilson vs Rams

I don’t want to jump to conclusions regarding the fallout of Marvin Harrison Jr. going to the Texans. However, it’s hard not to look at the workload for Michael Wilson in Week 5 and not at least think there was an immediate effect.

From Tetairoa McMillan (45.2 PPR points) to Garrett Wilson (26.7) to Chris Olave (28.2), outside receivers had been both earning targets and creating yards against the Lions. And yet all Wilson and Jacoby Brissett could muster was four hookups for 30 yards. Even Keon Coleman earned more looks and produced more fantasy points. Again, I’m willing to let the Cardinals offense re-find its footing. But not against the Rams.

Passing YPG (Allowed to Outside WRs): 2nd-fewest
Defensive EPA per Play: 6th-highest
Fantasy PPG: 5th-fewest

We just watched the Bills spam their RBs and TEs against LA. No perimeter receiver has topped more than 50 yards against the Rams. Of the three receivers who’ve gotten close—Demarcus Robinson, Courtland Sutton, Pat Bryant), all have an explosive gain of 20 yards or more. Brissett is already averaging 2.4 sacks per game with the 10th-lowest passing aDOT of any starter. Let’s give Wilson another week to see if his volume and production bounce back.