Underdog Pick 'Em Selections For Week 6: Bryce Young Goes High

On paper, Week 5 was rough for my picks. I did hit my longshot pick of a D'Andre Swift first-half TD, but my core picks went 0-3. That being said, the picks weren't as far off as that would suggest. Trey McBride fell just four yards short of his receiving yardage line and Tyler Huntley needed overtime to go higher than his passing-yards line. Nico Collins was the furthest off his line, but he had multiple close calls on big plays that would have gotten him the necessary yardage. So although it wasn't my best week, that is the nature of the game we play, and I still feel good about the process.

If you’re new to this article, every week I will be bringing you my favorite picks on Underdog. I will start by highlighting three of the best picks for the week based on the line vs. fantasy football projections. I will also give you a couple of my favorite longshot selections for the week that you can include to juice your pick 'em payouts. Now that we have five weeks of data to look at, I will also be incorporating position-level matchup information, particularly our DvP tool to identify the most advantageous matchups.

One quick thing to note before diving in is that I live in an Underdog Champions state, which means that my payouts may look slightly different than they would for someone who lives in a standard pick 'em state, but the differences should be minimal.

Week 6 Underdog Pick 'Em Selections

Bryce Young higher than 224.5 passing yards

Bryce Young currently leads the NFL in passing yards per game with 317. I don't expect him to sustain that pace all year, but he does genuinely seem to have taken a step forward this year in terms of his command of the offense and confidence

In past years the Eagles were not a team I liked to play offensive pieces against because they could hold the ball for long stretches of the game and minimize the number of plays run by the opposing offense. This year's Eagles have gained the fewest number of first downs of any team, a strong indicator that they are not sustaining drives. Also, it was announced Thursday that Jalen Hurts will sit out this game with a superficial blood clot in his leg. This Philly defense also isn't what it used to be. They currently rank in the bottom half of the league in both dropback EPA allowed per play and dropback success rate allowed.

To make matters worse, the Eagles are traveling back from London while the Panthers are coming off of their bye week. That is a severe rest/preparation advantage that makes me like the Panthers in this game.

From a projections standpoint, the Fantasy Life projections have Bryce Young at 251 passing yards this week, a solid edge over this line. It also looks like Young will get one of his top weapons back with Jalen Coker logging a full practice and on track to return in this game.

Rhamondre Stevenson higher than 14.5 receiving yards

Rhamondre Stevenson has gone over this number in four of five games so far this season and should step into an even bigger role with TreVeyon Henderson sidelined. The Patriots’ RB3, Corey Kiner, did not have much of a receiving profile coming out of college and has only 2 targets in his five appearances this season. Kiner should also see an increased workload, but the evidence suggests he is more likely to see that on the ground than through the air.

The Jets defense does look to have improved this year, but it is still just an average unit and our DvP tool has them providing a slight boost to opposing RB receiving production. That boost may actually be a byproduct of their solid pass rush, which currently ranks 7th in pass-rush win rate this season. Drake Maye already targets his RBs at a decent clip, but the prospect of an extra checkdown or two in the face of a good pass rush only makes me like this line more.

The Fantasy Life projections have Stevenson for 3.7 targets and 21.5 receiving yards this week. I think that may be a bit conservative as those are basically his averages for this season and I expect to see increased usage while Henderson is out.

Kayshon Boutte lower than 24.5 receiving yards

The Texans clearly have not been thrilled with what they have gotten from Kayshon Boutte this season because they made the decision to trade for Marvin Harrison Jr., who offers a similar skill set. Looking at the data, I can understand why. Boutte was close to a full-time player in the first five weeks, running 71% of routes, but he earned just a 12% target share and did not top 3 catches or 38 receiving yards in any of Houston's first five games.

I don't expect Boutte to completely disappear from the offense, but MHJ is going to play this week and this suddenly looks like a very crowded WR room. Xavier Hutchinson and Jaylin Noel will also continue to see playing time and Boutte's role is not differentiated from MHJ and Nico Collins. As a result, I expect his route rate to plummet and his new role to be that of a situational deep threat. He'll probably still get one or two deep targets per game, but he and C.J. Stroud have not developed much chemistry in this short time, so I am comfortable betting against them connecting on those targets. Though the former Ohio State teammates could develop a better rapport later in the season.

The Fantasy Life projections are also baking in all these reasons for pessimism as they have Boutte projected for just 12.7 receiving yards. These low lines do make me nervous because it only takes one play to go over this number, but when the projections, historical data and narrative all align you just have to trust it.

Week 6 Underdog Pick 'em Longshot

Christian Watson higher than 0.5 first-half rushing/receiving TDs

Christian Watson is in the middle of a true breakout season. He is the WR3 in PPR points per game and is second among all WRs in receiving TDs with six. The Packers' rushing attack has been dismal, and they seem to finally be embracing the reality that they need to be a pass-heavy offense. Jordan Love has averaged 39.6 dropbacks per game this season and Watson has been a clear beneficiary with an 84 Utilization Score, which is 9th best among WRs.

Watson and the Packers passing game now get to take on a Dallas Cowboys defense that ranks dead last in dropback EPA allowed per play and dropback success rate allowed. Dallas also ranks 31st in pass-rush win rate, which means Love should have time to hold the ball and let his WRs get downfield for the types of big plays that we just saw them destroy the Bears with.

I don't have any particular logic for why Watson would score in the first half, but I like his odds to score in this game that should feature plenty of big plays and points. If you want to play it a bit more safe, an anytime TD is a great pick but I am going for a higher payout by picking Watson to find paydirt in the first half.